Some of it was over my head, even though I have good mathematical knowledge. but Stephen Perrenod is the absolute top guy in my book. Even among bitcoiners I meet in person I'm still the only one who values the power law, but that's their loss!
BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE NEVER EXISTED | Next Bubble 2027 w/ Stephen Perrenod
Aired Dec 19, 2025 · 57m · Last boosted Dec 20, 2025
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Show Notes
In this episode, Nik sits down with astrophysicist and mathematician Dr. Stephen Perrenod to break down Bitcoin’s power law, bubble behavior, and why the familiar four year cycle framework no longer holds. They explore how Bitcoin trades relative to long term trend, why volatility is structurally declining, and how new tiers of capital shape bubble timing through log periodic behavior. Stephen explains why 2025 was not supposed to produce a bubble, why 2021 was a harmonic rather than a peak, and why the next major Bitcoin bubble may arrive closer to 2027 as deeper capital pools emerge. Other Episodes: ...
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Other Episodes This Community Boosts Other shows' episodes boosted by people who boosted this episode
Jan 19, 2025
Nostr Boosts:
1k
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 20, 2025
500 Eye-opening podcast. I'm not familiar with his work so this was inspirational. Not sure why he's described as weird or annoying, I didn't detect that.
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 20, 2025
500 Inspirational.
Nostr Boosts:1k
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 8, 2025
500 Love Giovanni's work and his commitment to unbiased scientific method.
Having said that, in his presentations he dives into so many associated points that I'm sure the average listener will end up bewitched, bothered and bewildered by so much information.
Nevertheless, if you're prepared to concentrate, this is brilliant stuff. Audio only on fountain, so you don't get to see the charts he refers to.
Kudos to Stephan for keeping it on track with a light touch!
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 4, 2025
500 I've been interested in Gio's power law work since I discovered it about a year ago.
He's been attacked by many who should know better, but who won't retain the open mindedness they once had for bitcoin itself. The attacks are always ad hominem and never scientific.
Good to see Stephan being a leading light in the open-minded discussions.
Aug 9, 2026
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKAug 9, 2026
500 I'm quite clever, and my mathematical ability is better than most, but Stephen's work puts me firmly in my place!
I'm a dumbass!
(Still a power law believer!)
May 6, 2026
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKMay 10, 2026
500 I'm just upset, as an elderly super-boomer, that there is so little I understand. Lots of interesting stuff in here though.
Apr 15, 2026
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKApr 17, 2026
500 Brilliant insights. Good to get a range of serious opinions from serious guests.
Mar 15, 2026
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKMar 18, 2026
500 Best episode ever. An absolute gem! The title didn't appeal to me so I wasn't going to bother. I would have missed the most entertaining and enjoyable episode in the history of enjoyable episodes.
What an engaging and interesting.character! Definitely now looking out for more of his stuff.
Jan 24, 2026
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 25, 2026
500 Reduce screen time! Listen to podcasts rather than watch them. Also, it's not screen time, but don't be always listening to stuff while walking or gardening.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 11, 2026
500 Important work. Though I must admit that I didn't understand the details of how I would use any of it.
My bad!
Oct 27, 2025
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKNov 1, 2025
500 Super interesting to hear from such a young person who has great awareness. At the other end of the age spectrum from myself, I'm often painfully aware how little insight most people of all ages have!
Robin shows again and incredible talent for tuning in to different perspectives.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKOct 27, 2025
500 Ideal episode. Role model for podcasters.
They said early on that they had no content for this episode, and they achieved that goal by brilliantly meandering, chatting and generally killing time.
💯 % success!
Well done lads! I'll be back!
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKOct 9, 2025
500 So good to get a reasonable perspective on the Core/Knots debate.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKSep 29, 2025
500 I've used LastPass for a long time. No problems with it but I'm moving gradually over to ProtonPass during the last few months. I love it, and it's reassuring to hear that I'm doing the right thing.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKAug 17, 2025
500 I am in awe of you guys. Ben Gunn got a mention, rightly so because I want him to be my late-in-life role model and mentor. Never too late for me to improve.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKAug 4, 2025
500 Interesting as always.
Cake wallet is great on android. But on my Linux it seemed to install, then on next use gave errors, and I couldn't get back in.
Don't know how to delete it and reinstall.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJul 12, 2025
500 This is amazing stuff! Ben Gunn can be my mentor! If he doesn't mind an old guy hanging around and making inane comments.
Sep 27, 2024
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJul 9, 2025
500 Just caught up with this! What an inspiration is Ben Gunn! Don't know where to begin. I'm old now, but I recognise his mindset. I just never was confident to back my own ideas. (Can confirm that Nathan Day is a good guy!)
May 6, 2025
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKMay 15, 2025
500 Shockingly bad from this 'philosopher'. Facts, he says, ignoring the fact that we were all supposed to be under water by now.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKMar 25, 2025
500 Yes I agree with Max's sentiments about all the boring useless bs by most bitcoiners on X.
That's why this podcast is so refreshing with its focus on privacy.
Also Max's voice is calm and soothing, and sends me to sleep after 10 mins.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKFeb 16, 2025
500 Mostly superb. A breath of fresh air when saying what the cowardly Tories should always have said.
Two areas of concern: he kept on talking too much over the interviewer's questions, and he kept on persistently misunderstanding the questions about bitcoin, conflating it with crypto.
So he sometimes sounded to me like an old boomer, even though I'm much older.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKFeb 11, 2025
500 Sounds great. But I've downloaded Cake wallet and I can't see how to get going on it.
Support guide gives 404 Not found.
How to get started?
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 16, 2025
500 Your podcast is great but it uses up about 5 hours of my time.
I record it and edit out all the swearing, especially the c word. My editing skills are poor.
Then I'm not embarrassed to listen to it with my 15 year-old granddaughter.
The final version runs for about 10 minutes!
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 4, 2025
500 Brilliant antidote to the 'Bitcoin fixed this' bs which many of us have fallen prey to.
I heard about his work a couple of years ago, but then forgot about it.
Very clear challenges to the prevailing groupthink. Many uncomfortable truths.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKJan 1, 2025
500 Don't know why, but I love these Ungernovernabubble podcasts. Even though I'm 50 years over the target audience age.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKDec 30, 2024
500 Loved this interview. Very eloquent and clear expression of ideas. OK, I don't agree with his socialism, but the analysis of where Labour has gone wrong is superb. And how Labour has betrayed family values, UK values, in fact ANY values!
Brilliant.
Must listen.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKDec 28, 2024
500 I'm beginning to understand Nostr!
Still a long way to go but I think it will be worth it!
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKDec 16, 2024
500 Great show. Peter eloquent mid/end on what's wrong in the UK. Well worth a listen.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKNov 13, 2024
500 Recommend this episode. Some of it should resonate with normie finance guys.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKOct 29, 2024
500 Full disclosure: I'm an early boomer.
Getting involved with the bitcoin scene, say 4 years ago, I was blown away by the amazing people and their insights which resonated with me.
I've gradually realised that they are mostly f*kn ret*rd sheep who blindly follow the latest crappy influencers. We've all been there!
Now it's your podcast and your guest who are resonating.
Thank you!
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKOct 14, 2024
500 Fascinating episode. I'm listening on fountain when possible. But sometimes it's good to see the speakers as well, so I have to still use Spotify sometimes.
I don't find Nostr very easy or useful but I just keep going because I know I will get better, and it will get better.
Oscar explains stuff really well.
Nostr Boosts:500
Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UKOct 6, 2024
500 All super important stuff. But the Elon derangement is big. Twitter under Jack D invited all the three letter acronym agencies in, to censor and surveil. Now he's a hero.
The current model of single super-powerful owner is very bad long term, obviously. But it's better in the short term.
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Rog @ SC Bitcoin ⚡UK
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